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Traders Report November 20th

Traders Report November 20th

All Ords Index

The Australian sharemarket had another bearish day with the index losing one percent. In yesterday’s article I showed the index was trading at the support level of 5350 and that this would prove an important level for future price movements. Today’s losses resulted in the index penetrating this support level and closing at its lows and in the process forming a long bearish candle.

The 20 day moving average has crossed below the 50 day moving average which is another bearish signal. Looking forward it is possible that the bearish sentiment will continue and the next support level of 5120 comes into range. In my opinion the market is headed lower in the medium term. Any rise in prices is probably going to be met with resistance at the August pivot low of 5420.

At this stage I am staying clear of any long position trades on the Australian sharemarket and have therefore not provided any trade suggestions for specific shares.

Flavio

All Ords Index

All Ords Index

Traders Report November 19th

Traders Report November 19th

Australian shares have fallen for the third day in a row. The technical’s show that the index fell straight through the support level of 5420 and closed at it’s low today of 5352. This level was the support low seen in April to June. If the price falls through this price level then it is likely to signal further weakness and the index could then begin to fall all the way down to the low’s seen in mid October.

In contrast the US markets are continuing it’s bullish run with the S&P500 index making a new high overnight. It is clear that the Australian market is trading independently of the larger US market and is failing to follow it’s lead. This may signal that investors and traders are bearish about Australian market conditions and see better value in other markets. A pull back in the S&P500 index is likely to be supported at the resistance level of 2020 points.

I am neutral at present and not entering any long trades on the Australian market until I see evidence of the support level at 5350 holding and retracing above 5420.

Happy Trading

Flavio

All Ords Index

All Ords Index

 

S&P500 Index

S&P500 Index

Traders Report November 17th

Traders Report November 17th

All Ords Index 

The Australian Sharemarket lost ground last week and retraced slightly. From a technical perspective the index reversed at the resistance level of 5520 which was established from the peaks of April May and June as seen on the chart below. The current support level sits at 5420 which was formed by the pivot low seen in August. If the index falls through this price level then we could see the index price falling all the way back down towards the support level of 5360 which formed the base of the trading range seen from April to July. Clearly for the index to push higher it will need to break through the resistance level of 5520.

All Ords Index

All Ords Index

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED (CTD)

The chart shows a nice up-trend in the share price with a breakout from the pennant formation on Friday. Volume was good which indicates the breakout has momentum. Short term traders could look to enter on Monday within the boundary of Friday’s breakout candle with stops under $9.50.

Corporate Travel Management

Corporate Travel Management

Happy Trading

Flavio

 

Traders Report November 3rd

Traders Report November 3rd

Overseas markets ended the previous week on a high with both the Dow Jones Index and the S&P500 index closing at all time highs on Friday. This was achieved on the back of the surprise announcement from the Bank of Japan to increase its stimulus program which includes an increase in its purchasing of Japanese Government Bonds and exchange traded funds.

The other stimulus to the US markets has been the better than expected third quarter earnings report. So far 70% of stocks have reported their 3rd quarter earnings and more than three-quarters of these companies have reported above analysts estimates.

The major indexes have now rallied from the September and October correction and have pushed to all time closing highs. I for one was expecting the resistance levels to hold in the short-term but bullish momentum has easily pushed beyond these technical levels.

Dow Jones Index

Dow Jones Index

S&P500 Index

S&P500 Index

 

The chart for the All Ords Index does not provide as bullish a picture as that of it’s US counterparts. Clearly further bullish movement on the US markets will continue to push the Australian markets higher but the All Ords Index is likely to meet resistance at 5670 points as shown on the chart below and it would not surprise to see a reversal at this price level.

All Ords Index

All Ords Index

 

One stock from the Australian market to look out for is that of NEXTDC (NXT) as charted below.

The stock was in a strong downtrend over the past 12 months with a breakout from the downtrend in late October with the subsequent appearance of a higher high and higher low to signal the start of an early up trend. The 20 and 50 day moving averages have also formed a bullish cross. I will have this on my watch list and will look to any retracement as being a potential to enter on the long side.

 

NEXTDC (NXT)

NEXTDC (NXT)

Happy Trading

 

Flavio

 

Wall Street Traders Report October 29th

Wall Street Traders Report October 29th 

Welcome to my first blog for several months. I took a few months off from trading to work on my trading plan and to focus on fine tuning my exit strategy. It ended up occurring at an opportune time with the markets dropping heavily in the months of September and October when I was not invested in any trades. As a trader I think it’s good to have a break from trading and to sit back and see how the market behaves without the emotion involved in holding trades.

Looking at the Dow Jones Index and the S&P500 index below it can be see that the markets were heavily sold off in late September and into October. The markets have since rallied from mid October and are closing in on the first resistance levels as depicted in the charts below. After such a strong rally prices may start to blow off and sellers may be tempted back into shorting positions with buyers also off loading long positions.

At this stage I am going to be sitting on the side-lines until either the first resistance level is overcome with the more likely scenario being that I will not enter the markets again until all time resistance in both the Dow Jones and the S&P500 is cleared.

I look forward to providing more regular blog articles in the coming weeks.

Happy Trading

Flavio

S&P500 Index

S&P500 Index

Dow Jones Industrial Ave Index

Dow Jones Industrial Ave Index

Wall Street Traders Report August 6th

Wall Street Traders Report August 6th

It’s been a mixed bag of trading results for me over the past few weeks. I was long several US listed CFD’s but was stopped out last week after the large bearish correction day last Thursday when the Dow Jones Index fell over 300 points (1.8%) to take out the short term support of 16,800 points.  Over the entire week the Dow Jones fell 2.75% (467 points) to close at 16,493 points. Many traders with long positions would have seen their stops hit last week and much of the current market commentary on the internet talks of a market correction due to overvalued stocks and excessive market bullish momentum.

The first chart below shows the bearish candle which formed on Thursday July 31st. This candle took out the support level of 16,800 with ease with the next three trading days showing little resistance to further declines. I see the index falling further towards the next support level of 16,350 before the market perhaps pauses at this level. Any rally from current levels is likely to find resistance at 16,800.

Chart 1. Dow Jones (4 month view)

Chart 1. Dow Jones (4 month view)

 

Moving out to the 12 month chart below shows the index in a broad up-trend. The interesting point to observe on this chart is how the 200 day moving average was able to support the price on previous retracements in October 2013 and February 2014. The index price is getting closer to the 200 day moving average again and it may just find support here and use it as a springboard to resume it’s  up-trend as it did previously. The 200 day moving average sits just below the 16,350 price area which also happens to be the next horizontal support level as seen on both of the charts.

At this stage I am not entering into any more trades and will happily sit on the sidelines until the market direction is confirmed.

Happy Trading

Flavio

Chart 2. Dow Jones (12 month View)

Chart 2. Dow Jones (12 month View)

 

Wall Street Traders Report July 31st

Wall Street Traders Report July 31st

Sirius XM Radio (SIRI)

Sirius has moved into an early up-trend and has paused at $3.50 which is acting as resistance. Positive earnings reported on Tuesday could look at pushing the share price through this resistance to continue the up-trend.

Chart 1. Sirius (SIRI)

Chart 1. Sirius (SIRI)

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