Today’s blog will simply be a selection of charts which are showing interesting technical charts.
OZFOREX Group (OFX)
Capitol Health (CAJ)
Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)
The Australian sharemarket has rallied over the past two days but the short term trend is still bearish. The 20 and 50 day moving averages are trending down with the price trading well below the averages. I see resistance being met at 5350 points which is the horizontal support level of April to June which should turn from support to resistance. Last weeks rally was held up by the 20 and 50 day moving averages and it is likely that this will happen again.
Despite the bearish chart of the All Ords index above there are still shares in the top 300 stocks that are showing bullish technical charts. Sirtex Medical is in a very strong up-trend. A recent trading range formed with a bullish breakout candle today on above average volume. I will be looking for a slight pullback to the resistance price of $27.50 to enter with my stops placed under $27.00.
The Australian sharemarket had another bearish day with the index losing one percent. In yesterday’s article I showed the index was trading at the support level of 5350 and that this would prove an important level for future price movements. Today’s losses resulted in the index penetrating this support level and closing at its lows and in the process forming a long bearish candle.
The 20 day moving average has crossed below the 50 day moving average which is another bearish signal. Looking forward it is possible that the bearish sentiment will continue and the next support level of 5120 comes into range. In my opinion the market is headed lower in the medium term. Any rise in prices is probably going to be met with resistance at the August pivot low of 5420.
At this stage I am staying clear of any long position trades on the Australian sharemarket and have therefore not provided any trade suggestions for specific shares.
Australian shares have fallen for the third day in a row. The technical’s show that the index fell straight through the support level of 5420 and closed at it’s low today of 5352. This level was the support low seen in April to June. If the price falls through this price level then it is likely to signal further weakness and the index could then begin to fall all the way down to the low’s seen in mid October.
In contrast the US markets are continuing it’s bullish run with the S&P500 index making a new high overnight. It is clear that the Australian market is trading independently of the larger US market and is failing to follow it’s lead. This may signal that investors and traders are bearish about Australian market conditions and see better value in other markets. A pull back in the S&P500 index is likely to be supported at the resistance level of 2020 points.
I am neutral at present and not entering any long trades on the Australian market until I see evidence of the support level at 5350 holding and retracing above 5420.
The Australian Sharemarket lost ground last week and retraced slightly. From a technical perspective the index reversed at the resistance level of 5520 which was established from the peaks of April May and June as seen on the chart below. The current support level sits at 5420 which was formed by the pivot low seen in August. If the index falls through this price level then we could see the index price falling all the way back down towards the support level of 5360 which formed the base of the trading range seen from April to July. Clearly for the index to push higher it will need to break through the resistance level of 5520.
The chart shows a nice up-trend in the share price with a breakout from the pennant formation on Friday. Volume was good which indicates the breakout has momentum. Short term traders could look to enter on Monday within the boundary of Friday’s breakout candle with stops under $9.50.
Overseas markets ended the previous week on a high with both the Dow Jones Index and the S&P500 index closing at all time highs on Friday. This was achieved on the back of the surprise announcement from the Bank of Japan to increase its stimulus program which includes an increase in its purchasing of Japanese Government Bonds and exchange traded funds.
The other stimulus to the US markets has been the better than expected third quarter earnings report. So far 70% of stocks have reported their 3rd quarter earnings and more than three-quarters of these companies have reported above analysts estimates.
The major indexes have now rallied from the September and October correction and have pushed to all time closing highs. I for one was expecting the resistance levels to hold in the short-term but bullish momentum has easily pushed beyond these technical levels.
The chart for the All Ords Index does not provide as bullish a picture as that of it’s US counterparts. Clearly further bullish movement on the US markets will continue to push the Australian markets higher but the All Ords Index is likely to meet resistance at 5670 points as shown on the chart below and it would not surprise to see a reversal at this price level.
One stock from the Australian market to look out for is that of NEXTDC (NXT) as charted below.
The stock was in a strong downtrend over the past 12 months with a breakout from the downtrend in late October with the subsequent appearance of a higher high and higher low to signal the start of an early up trend. The 20 and 50 day moving averages have also formed a bullish cross. I will have this on my watch list and will look to any retracement as being a potential to enter on the long side.
Welcome to my first blog for several months. I took a few months off from trading to work on my trading plan and to focus on fine tuning my exit strategy. It ended up occurring at an opportune time with the markets dropping heavily in the months of September and October when I was not invested in any trades. As a trader I think it’s good to have a break from trading and to sit back and see how the market behaves without the emotion involved in holding trades.
Looking at the Dow Jones Index and the S&P500 index below it can be see that the markets were heavily sold off in late September and into October. The markets have since rallied from mid October and are closing in on the first resistance levels as depicted in the charts below. After such a strong rally prices may start to blow off and sellers may be tempted back into shorting positions with buyers also off loading long positions.
At this stage I am going to be sitting on the side-lines until either the first resistance level is overcome with the more likely scenario being that I will not enter the markets again until all time resistance in both the Dow Jones and the S&P500 is cleared.
I look forward to providing more regular blog articles in the coming weeks.
Sirius has moved into an early up-trend and has paused at $3.50 which is acting as resistance. Positive earnings reported on Tuesday could look at pushing the share price through this resistance to continue the up-trend.
Wednesday July 23rd and the Australian share market had a positive day with the broader All Ordinaries Market Index reaching at a six-year closing high. The index closed up 0.8% at 5567 points after reaching an intraday high of 5587 points, this was on the back of positive movements on Wall Street markets overnight.
The All Ords index has been struck in a trading range over the past few months as previously mentioned in my last blog. Today’s price action has provided a positive bullish signal that further rises may be following, but attention will turn back towards the US markets over the next few weeks which is in the midst of its profit reporting season. If US company reports are positive then this will continue to push the Dow Jones Index up which will then follow through onto the Australian share market.
With today’s resistance breakout technical traders like myself will be hoping that the resistance level of 5540 will now hold as short-term support on any pullback.
Macquarie Group Limited provides banking, financial, advisory, investment, and fund management services. The share price chart below bears a similar resemblance to the one above with the price stuck between a trading range over the past three months. As did the All Ords index the share price for Macquarie was able to break through the range resistance level of $61.00 today. The price is currently trending upwards in an orderly fashion and today’s breakout indicates that the next leg up is underway.
The Australian sharemarket has been able to rally over the past fortnight with the All Ordinaries Index rising 0.8% last week and within touching distance of it’s resistance level. The chart below demonstrates the sideways movement of the index over the past three months with prices supported at 5,350 points with overhead resistance in the region of 5,540 points. On Thursday prices attempted to breakout above the resistance level but were pushed lower towards the close with the formation of a long tailed reversal candle.
The overall picture indicates that bulls are trying to push the markets higher but have been met with selling pressure at current levels. In order for the All Ords to push higher prices will need to breakout and close above the resistance level of 5,550 points. Any further declines from current levels are likely to be halted by the support price of 5,350.
Lonestar Resources, Ltd. is a leading independent oil and gas company involved in exploration, production, and acquisition of unconventional oil and gas reserves.
The share price has been in a strong up-trend for most of 2014. Friday saw a bullish candlestick rising through resistance on strong volume. There could be further up-side left in this share but volatility is high and traders do need to be careful after such a strong run up that prices could be extended. In situations such as this I make sure I have a tight stop loss in the event that prices turn downwards quickly. I will wait for the opening of the markets on Monday to see if prices can open above the previous high of $0.51. If this occurs then a limit buy order in this area can be covered with a stop loss under Friday’s low of $0.48.